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How to ThinkIn the Age of AI
Patternv1PT-024

Availability-heuristic pattern

the systematic tendency to judge the probability of events based on how easily examples come to mind rather than on actual frequency, producing predictable miscalibration proportional to the vividness and recency of recalled examples

Why This Is a Pattern

Exemplifies Cognition Operates Through Dual Processing Systems (System 1 heuristics) and Cognitive Dissonance Drives Information Avoidance (miscalibration). Recurs in risk assessment, investment, health decisions, fear responses.

Source Lessons

The availability heuristic

You overestimate the likelihood of events you can easily recall examples of. The availability heuristic substitutes the question "how frequent is this?" with the question "how easily can I think of an example?" — and the substitution happens below conscious awareness, which means you feel like you are reasoning about probability when you are actually reasoning about the vividness of your memory.

Connections

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