Principlev1PR-282
Before updating a belief, explicitly estimate both…
Before updating a belief, explicitly estimate both the direction and magnitude of the update in writing to prevent conservatism and base rate neglect.
Why This Is a Principle
This principle derives from Belief Perseverance Against Contradictory Evidence (belief perseverance) and implements a specific corrective procedure. By writing down the planned update before executing it, you create an external anchor that prevents both under-updating (conservatism) and over-updating (base rate neglect). This is actionable and general.