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How to ThinkIn the Age of AI
Principlev1PR-1069

Define success criteria and measurement methods before…

Define success criteria and measurement methods before implementing any optimization change, because post-hoc evaluation enables unconscious redefinition of success to match whatever occurred.

Why This Is a Principle

Grounded in Hindsight Bias and Calibration Necessity (memory reconstructs toward known outcomes), Systematic Overconfidence Taxonomy (overconfidence), and Belief Perseverance Against Contradictory Evidence (belief perseverance). Pre-commitment to criteria prevents hindsight bias from corrupting evaluation.