Principlev1

Prioritize testing assumptions by mapping them on importance

Prioritize testing assumptions by mapping them on importance (how much failure matters) versus vulnerability (likelihood of being wrong), then test high-importance, high-vulnerability assumptions first.

Why This Is a Principle

Derives from Human beings make decisions under conditions of incomplete (bounded rationality—limited time/information) and Simple decision rules using less information can outperform (simple rules can outperform complex models under uncertainty). This is a general decision-making principle about resource allocation under constraint, not a domain-specific rule.

Source Lessons

L-0186

Externalize your assumptions

Assumptions you never write down are assumptions you never question. Every plan, decision, and belief rests on invisible premises — and the invisible ones are the ones that destroy you.

Connections

Derived From (2)

AxiomSimple decision rules using less information can outperform AxiomHuman beings make decisions under conditions of incomplete

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