After four weeks, check if your beliefs under-react…
After four weeks of belief tracking, examine whether beliefs barely moved despite evidence (conservatism) or swung dramatically on single data points (base rate neglect) to identify domain-specific updating patterns.
When This Fires
- After maintaining a belief-tracking journal for at least four weeks
- When you suspect you're either too stubborn or too reactive in specific domains
- During periodic meta-cognitive reviews of your decision-making quality
- When building domain-specific calibration strategies
Common Failure Mode
Tracking beliefs without recording the evidence strength. A belief that didn't move might be correct conservatism (the evidence was weak) or problematic conservatism (the evidence was strong but you ignored it). Without evidence strength annotations, you can't distinguish appropriate stability from pathological rigidity.
The Protocol
For four weeks, track significant beliefs: (1) Record the belief and your confidence level. (2) When evidence arrives, record what it is and how strong it is (weak/moderate/strong). (3) Record your updated confidence. After four weeks: (4) For each belief, plot the trajectory. Beliefs that barely moved despite strong evidence → conservatism in that domain. Beliefs that swung 30%+ on single data points → base rate neglect. (5) Apply the appropriate correction: push yourself to update more in conservative domains, anchor to base rates more in volatile domains.