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How to ThinkIn the Age of AI

Test schemas at the smallest possible scale first…

Before acting on a schema in any consequential way, test it through concrete action at the smallest possible scale first and observe actual results against pre-stated predictions.

When This Fires

  • Before acting on any belief that hasn't been tested against reality
  • Before scaling a small success into a larger commitment
  • When a schema feels theoretically sound but has never been reality-tested
  • During any decision where the stakes are high enough that testing at small scale first is worthwhile

Common Failure Mode

Testing at too large a scale: "I'll test my management philosophy by restructuring the entire team." If the schema is wrong, the restructuring damages the team before you learn. Test at minimum viable scale: apply the philosophy in one 1:1 meeting and observe results against your prediction.

The Protocol

Before consequential action based on a schema: (1) State your prediction: "If [schema] is correct, then [specific observable outcome] will occur when [specific action] is taken." (2) Design the smallest-scale test: what's the minimum action that would produce observable evidence for or against the prediction? (3) Execute the test. (4) Compare actual results to your pre-stated prediction. (5) If prediction holds → increase scale cautiously. If prediction fails → revise the schema before scaling. The small-scale test costs hours; the untested large-scale action costs months.