Before big decisions, separate the recent trigger…
Before any consequential decision, populate two mandatory fields: the recent event driving current feeling, and the base rate/historical trend across the full relevant time window.
When This Fires
- Deciding whether to change strategy after a bad result
- Evaluating someone's performance based on recent interactions
- Making investment, career, or commitment decisions after an emotional event
- Any decision where you feel unusually confident or unusually worried
Common Failure Mode
Filling in both fields but letting the recent event overrule the base rate anyway. "I know the historical trend is positive, but this quarter was really bad" — and then acting as if the quarter is more informative than the trend. The base rate isn't just context. It's the prior that your recent experience should update incrementally, not replace entirely.
The Protocol
Write two sentences before any consequential decision: (1) "I feel [X] about this because [recent event]." (2) "The historical base rate across [time window] is [Y]." If the two tell different stories, the base rate is almost always more reliable. Adjust for the recent event only if you can articulate why this specific event is more diagnostic than the full history.