Extract and classify every assumption before committing…
Before committing resources to a plan, extract every assumption it depends on and classify each by importance (would the plan fail if this is wrong?) and vulnerability (how likely is this to be wrong?), then test assumptions marked both high-importance and high-vulnerability first.
When This Fires
- Before committing budget, time, or team resources to a project plan
- Before launching a product, feature, or initiative
- When a plan "feels solid" but hasn't been stress-tested
- During any planning session where the next step is "go build it"
Common Failure Mode
Testing the easy assumptions instead of the dangerous ones. Low-importance, low-vulnerability assumptions are comfortable to verify ("yes, the API supports JSON") while high-importance, high-vulnerability assumptions are uncomfortable to confront ("do customers actually want this?"). The matrix forces you to sequence by risk rather than by comfort.
The Protocol
Before committing resources: (1) List every assumption the plan depends on — aim for 10+. (2) For each, rate importance (H/L): "Would the plan fail if this is wrong?" (3) For each, rate vulnerability (H/L): "How likely is this to be wrong?" (4) Sort into a 2×2 matrix. (5) Test all High-Importance / High-Vulnerability assumptions before committing resources. If any fail, redesign the plan. The remaining quadrants can be tested during execution.