Test your riskiest assumptions first and cheapest — list…

When This Fires

• Before committing significant resources (time, money, team effort) to any project
• At the start of any initiative where failure would be costly
• When expanding scope of an existing project — new scope brings new assumptions
• Complements Before committing to a one-way door, search for ways… (restructure one-way doors) by testing assumptions before committing

Common Failure Mode

Testing easy assumptions instead of risky ones: "Let's validate the technical approach first because we know how to do that." The technical approach may be the assumption you're most confident about. The highest-risk assumption might be market demand, which is harder to test but more likely to invalidate the project. Test in order of potential damage, not ease of testing.

The Protocol

(1) Before committing resources, list all assumptions the project depends on. (2) Rank by invalidation potential: "If this assumption is wrong, how much work is wasted?" The top 3-5 are your highest-risk assumptions. (3) For each, starting with the highest risk: design the cheapest possible falsification test. Not a proof — a falsification. "What's the quickest way to discover this assumption is wrong?" (4) Execute tests in order. If any assumption fails → stop and reassess before proceeding. The failed assumption may require a pivot, scope reduction, or project cancellation. (5) Only commit full resources after the top assumptions survive their tests. The testing cost is the insurance premium that protects the full investment.