Before committing to a bug hypothesis, write
Before committing to a hypothesis about a bug's cause, write one sentence completing 'What would I expect to see if I were wrong?' then specifically search for that evidence before continuing the investigation.
When This Fires
- After forming an initial hypothesis about a bug's root cause
- When a debugging hypothesis "feels right" within the first few minutes
- Before investing significant time investigating a particular theory
- Complements Search logs for evidence that falsifies your hypothesis… (falsification search in logs) with a structured pre-search question
Common Failure Mode
Writing a falsification criterion so vague it can't fail: "If I were wrong, I'd expect to see something unusual." That's untestable. The criterion must be specific and observable: "If the database timeout hypothesis is wrong, I'd expect the query to complete successfully when run manually." Now you have a concrete test.
The Protocol
Before committing to any bug hypothesis: (1) Write: "If my hypothesis ([state it]) is wrong, I would expect to see [specific observable evidence]." (2) Search specifically for that evidence. Run the test, check the logs, examine the data. (3) If you find the disconfirming evidence → abandon or revise the hypothesis. You've saved the time you would have wasted pursuing it. (4) If you don't find it after genuine search → the hypothesis is strengthened. Proceed with higher confidence, not because you confirmed it, but because it survived falsification.