Rate each critical assumption…

When This Fires

• During quarterly strategic reviews when evaluating whether your direction is still valid
• When execution is strong but results are weak — likely a wrong assumption, not poor execution
• When you've been operating on autopilot without questioning foundational beliefs
• Complements Write a one-paragraph quarterly thesis (quarterly strategic thesis) with the assumption-testing that validates or invalidates the thesis

Common Failure Mode

Assumption preservation: rating assumptions as "uncertain" when evidence is clearly contradictory, because acknowledging falsification means changing strategy, which is uncomfortable. The "uncertain" rating becomes a holding pattern that delays the necessary pivot.

The Protocol

(1) At the start of each quarter, list your 3-5 critical strategic assumptions — the beliefs your current strategy depends on. (2) At the end of the quarter, rate each based on accumulated evidence: Confirmed (consistent supporting evidence — continue), Uncertain (mixed or insufficient evidence — design an explicit test for next quarter), Falsified (contradicting evidence — respond now). (3) For each falsified assumption: identify what strategic change is required and implement it before the next quarter begins. This isn't a gradual transition — the assumption is wrong, so the strategy built on it is wrong, and continuing is waste. (4) For uncertain assumptions: define what evidence would confirm or falsify it, and actively seek that evidence next quarter. Don't let "uncertain" persist for more than 2 consecutive quarters. (5) For confirmed assumptions: keep them on the list as explicit foundations. They provide strategic confidence and prevent unnecessary questioning of what's working.