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How to ThinkIn the Age of AI

Prioritize blocking decisions by cost of delay…

For decisions blocking three or more downstream dependencies, calculate cost of delay by multiplying the decision's delay duration by the combined capacity waiting idle, then prioritize decisions by this metric rather than by perceived importance.

When This Fires

  • A decision has been deferred while multiple downstream tasks wait
  • Sprint planning reveals that pending decisions are the primary blocker
  • Someone says "we're waiting on a decision" and multiple people nod
  • Any backlog review where undecided items have downstream dependencies

Common Failure Mode

Deferring "small" decisions because they feel unimportant: "I'll decide on the API format later, we have bigger things to discuss." Meanwhile, three engineers are blocked on that API format decision. The decision feels small; its system cost is enormous. Cost of delay makes this visible by attaching a number to the wait time.

The Protocol

When a decision blocks 3+ downstream dependencies: (1) Calculate cost of delay: number of blocked people × their time cost × estimated delay duration. (2) Compare this number to whatever you're currently working on instead. (3) If the cost of delay exceeds the value of your current work → make the blocking decision now, even if it's imperfect. A fast 80% decision that unblocks three teams beats a slow 95% decision that keeps them waiting. (4) If the decision genuinely can't be made (missing information), identify the specific information needed and assign someone to get it by end of day.