Multiply confidence at each transmission hop — multi-step…
For information arriving through multiple transmission steps (forwarded quotes, summarized studies, dashboard metrics), multiply the confidence value at each transmission step rather than treating endpoint confidence as equal to source confidence.
When This Fires
- Reading a summary of a study rather than the study itself
- Receiving information through organizational chains (your manager's manager heard that...)
- Consuming social media commentary about research, events, or claims
- Any time information reached you through 2+ intermediaries
Common Failure Mode
Treating endpoint confidence as source confidence: "Studies show that..." when what you actually read was a blog post summarizing a news article about a study. The confidence you have in "studies show" should reflect the full transmission chain, not just the authority of the word "studies."
The Protocol
When information arrives through multiple hops: (1) Trace the transmission chain: who said it → who cited it → who summarized it → how it reached you. (2) At each hop, estimate fidelity (0.5-0.95 depending on the quality of the transmission). (3) Multiply: source confidence × hop1 fidelity × hop2 fidelity × ... = your actual confidence. (4) Treat the information at its endpoint confidence, not its source confidence. If the resulting confidence is below your decision threshold, go to the primary source before acting on it.