For reversible decisions, act at 50-60% information…
For reversible decisions, act when you have 50-60% of desired information because experiential learning from outcomes typically exceeds information gain from additional deliberation.
When This Fires
- For any decision classified as a two-way door (Classify every decision as one-way or two-way door before…) where you're deliberating beyond the initial information gathering
- When you feel "not quite ready to decide" on a reversible choice — check if you're past 60%
- When analysis paralysis hits on a low-stakes decision despite having substantial information
- When the remaining information would take significantly longer to gather than acting and iterating
Common Failure Mode
Waiting for certainty on reversible decisions: "I want to be 90% confident before choosing." For a reversible decision, the cost of waiting from 60% to 90% confidence is weeks of deliberation. The cost of being wrong at 60% is the reversal effort — which, by definition, is low for two-way doors. The math strongly favors acting at 60%: low cost of being wrong × high probability of learning from experience > high cost of waiting × marginal confidence gain.
The Protocol
(1) For a reversible decision, assess: roughly what percentage of the information you'd ideally want do you currently have? (2) If >50-60% → act. You have enough to make a reasonable choice, and the remaining uncertainty will resolve faster through experience than through analysis. (3) If <50% → gather more, but set a time-boxed limit on additional research (Classify every decision as one-way or two-way door before…). Don't let "just a bit more research" extend indefinitely. (4) After acting, pay attention: what did you learn that you couldn't have learned through deliberation? This calibrates your threshold over time. (5) If the decision proves wrong → reverse it. That's what two-way doors are for. The reversal itself produces information about what matters, refining future decisions.