Keep separate Candidate and Confirmed pattern lists…
Maintain two separate lists—'Pattern Candidates' and 'Confirmed Patterns'—promoting candidates only after they survive three independent observations, one alternative-explanation check, and one successful prediction.
When This Fires
- When you notice a potential pattern and want to track it without committing to it
- During periodic reviews of your pattern dictionary
- When deciding whether to act on a perceived pattern
- Any time you're building a personal pattern recognition practice
Common Failure Mode
Treating the Candidate list as the Confirmed list — acting on unvalidated patterns because they feel right. The two lists exist specifically to prevent this. Candidates are hypotheses; Confirmed patterns are validated tools. Only Confirmed patterns should inform decisions.
The Protocol
(1) When you notice a potential pattern: add it to Pattern Candidates with the date and first observation. (2) As new observations occur, log them against the candidate. (3) Promotion checklist: three independent observations? ✓ Alternative explanation generated and tested? ✓ Successful prediction made? ✓ (4) All three criteria met → promote to Confirmed Patterns. (5) Any criterion failed → keep in Candidates and continue gathering evidence.