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How to ThinkIn the Age of AI

Calibrate commitment device strength to your failure…

Match the binding strength of commitment devices to the documented severity and frequency of past failures in that domain, using hard pre-commitments (physical impossibility or high cost) only for behaviors with long track records of in-the-moment failure.

When This Fires

  • When selecting a commitment device for a specific behavior
  • When a soft commitment device isn't working — check if the failure history warrants a stronger device
  • When considering hard pre-commitments — verify that the failure history justifies the rigidity
  • Complements Upgrade commitment enforcement to Level 3+… (enforcement hierarchy) with the calibration-to-history criterion

Common Failure Mode

Uniform device strength: using the same gentle reminder for all commitments regardless of failure history. Your "drink more water" reminder and your "don't check social media during deep work" commitment have vastly different failure histories and require vastly different device strengths. Applying the same reminder to both under-serves the social media commitment (which needs a website blocker, not a reminder).

The Protocol

(1) For each commitment needing a device, assess failure history: No prior failures → soft device (reminder, intention statement). 1-2 prior failures → medium device (accountability partner, environment modification, scheduled check-in). 3+ prior failures or decades-old competing behavior → hard device (physical impossibility, financial commitment, structural constraint). (2) If uncertain about history → start soft and escalate as failures accumulate (Upgrade commitment enforcement to Level 3+…). (3) The device strength should feel slightly excessive for the behavior's difficulty — "do I really need a website blocker?" If the behavior has failed three times on willpower → yes, you do. (4) Review device calibration quarterly: has the behavior improved enough to downgrade the device? Or have new failures accumulated that warrant upgrading?