Log suspected patterns with dates before concluding…
Record each occurrence of a suspected pattern with date and context in a dedicated log before drawing conclusions, because memory-based frequency assessment systematically overestimates recurrence through the frequency illusion.
When This Fires
- When you suspect a pattern is emerging (behavior, reaction, system failure)
- When you're about to conclude "this always happens" based on memory
- During any observation where frequency assessment matters for the conclusion
- When tracking a hypothesis about recurring events
Common Failure Mode
Drawing conclusions from the feeling of frequency rather than from data. "This person always misses deadlines" — but when you check the log, they missed two out of twelve. The feeling of "always" was generated by the two memorable misses, not by the ten unremarkable on-time deliveries. Without the log, the feeling becomes the fact.
The Protocol
When you suspect a pattern: (1) Start a dedicated log — even a note titled "Pattern: [name]." (2) For each occurrence: record date, context, and what specifically happened. (3) Do not draw conclusions until you have 5+ logged entries. (4) When reviewing, count the entries and check the contexts. Is the frequency as high as it felt? Are the contexts revealing a structural cause? (5) Conclusions drawn from logged data are trustworthy. Conclusions drawn from memory-based frequency assessment are not.