Surprise = automatic schema review — do not wait…
Treat surprising outcomes as automatic triggers for schema review rather than waiting for scheduled validation cycles, as surprise signals that at least one schema in your stack has drifted from reality.
When This Fires
- When any outcome surprises you — positive or negative
- When a prediction you made turns out wrong
- When a familiar process produces an unfamiliar result
- Any moment where reality diverged from your expectation in a way that made you pause
Common Failure Mode
Normalizing the surprise: "That was weird, but probably a one-off." Surprises that are explained away without investigation are missed opportunities for schema correction. The explanation ("one-off") might be correct, but the investigation is how you find out. Without the investigation, you're choosing comfort over calibration.
The Protocol
When you experience surprise: (1) Notice it immediately: "I expected [X] and got [Y]." (2) Do not explain it away. (3) Investigate: which schema produced the expectation? What assumption in that schema does the surprise contradict? (4) If the schema needs revision → revise and generate new predictions (Schema revisions must generate new predictions, not just…). If the surprise was genuinely anomalous → document it and monitor for recurrence. The investigation takes 5-10 minutes; deferring to the next scheduled review means the specific diagnostic signal will have decayed.