Count only independent evidence lines for confidence — ten…
When evaluating confidence in a belief, count only genuinely independent lines of evidence—sources that do not share origins, methods, or assumptions—rather than total source count, because correlated sources compound confidence on a single foundation.
When This Fires
- When multiple sources seem to confirm a belief and you're assessing confidence
- When "studies show" is used to justify high confidence
- During any evidence evaluation where source count is used as a proxy for evidence strength
- When forming beliefs about contested or uncertain topics
Common Failure Mode
Counting echoes as independent evidence: "Five articles agree on this, so it's well-supported." Check: do all five cite the same original study? Do all five use the same methodology? Do all five share the same theoretical framework? If yes to any, the five articles are correlated evidence from a single line, and your confidence should match one well-supported line, not five independent ones.
The Protocol
When evaluating confidence: (1) List all sources supporting the belief. (2) For each pair of sources, check independence: do they share origins (same data, same study)? Methods (same methodology)? Assumptions (same theoretical framework)? (3) Group correlated sources into evidence lines — each line counts as one unit of evidence regardless of how many sources it contains. (4) Count lines, not sources. Confidence should scale with independent lines: 1 line = tentative, 2 independent lines = moderate, 3+ independent lines = strong. A belief supported by 10 correlated sources has the same evidential support as one supported by the single study they all cite.