When expert intuition locks on, ask
When expert pattern recognition locks onto a familiar solution, force consideration of alternatives by asking 'I see X—but what if it is not X? What would I expect if it were Y?' before committing.
When This Fires
- When your expert pattern recognition produces an immediate, confident answer
- When a familiar solution to a new problem presents itself within the first minute
- During debugging when "I know what this is" arrives before thorough investigation
- Any situation where expertise makes you feel certain before you've considered alternatives
Common Failure Mode
Asking the disruption question rhetorically and immediately dismissing the alternative: "What if it's not a database issue? Nah, it's definitely the database." The question only works if you genuinely consider the alternative — which means specifying what evidence you'd expect to see if the alternative were true, then actually checking for that evidence.
The Protocol
When expert pattern recognition locks on: (1) Notice the lock-on: "I'm confident this is [X]." (2) Ask: "But what if it's NOT X? What would I expect to see if it were [Y — a specific alternative]?" (3) Check: is the evidence for Y present? (4) If Y's evidence is absent → X is strengthened. Proceed. If Y's evidence is present → your initial recognition missed something. Investigate further before committing. The 10-second question occasionally prevents the 30-minute investigation of the wrong cause.