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How to ThinkIn the Age of AI

At 40-60% delivery rates, halve commitments or double…

When monthly reviews consistently show 40-60% delivery rates, halve your commitments or double allocated time rather than setting aspirational targets, as realistic targets build self-efficacy while repeated failure erodes it.

When This Fires

Common Failure Mode

Aspirational escalation: "Last month I only hit 50%, so this month I'll really focus and aim for 100%." The structural causes of the 50% (too many commitments, unrealistic time estimates, insufficient slack) haven't changed. The only thing that changed is the intensity of the intention. Result: another 50% month with added guilt.

The Protocol

(1) If your average monthly delivery rate has been 40-60% for 2+ consecutive months, acknowledge: you are chronically overcommitting by roughly 2x. (2) Choose one intervention: Halve commitments (next month, commit to 2-3 outcomes instead of 5-6 — Limit monthly commitments to 3-5 specific outcomes… at the lower bound) or Double allocated time (if you estimated 10 hours per goal, budget 20). (3) Execute the reduced plan for one month. Target: 85-95% delivery rate. (4) If you hit 85%+ → your capacity is calibrated. Cautiously expand by one commitment next month. If still below 70% → reduce further. (5) Build upward from a foundation of consistent delivery rather than downward from a ceiling of aspirational failure. Hitting 3 of 3 builds more capability than hitting 3 of 6.