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How to ThinkIn the Age of AI
Principlev1PR-2155

Run pilots for at least three full cycles of the process…

Run pilots for at least three full cycles of the process being changed to distinguish initial learning effects from steady-state performance.

Why This Is a Principle

Derives from axioms about habit formation curves (Habit automaticity develops along a logarithmic curve…) and expertise development (Expertise Through Deliberate Practice) to prescribe pilot duration. The principle follows from understanding the temporal dynamics of learning and adaptation.

Source Lessons

Pilot programs as system experiments

Test systemic changes on a small scale before rolling them out broadly. A pilot program is a bounded experiment — a deliberate test of the proposed system change in a contained context where the change can be observed, measured, and refined without risking the entire organization. Pilots serve three functions: they generate evidence (does the change produce the intended outcome?), they reveal unintended consequences (what side effects emerge in practice?), and they build organizational confidence (the change has been tested and it works). System changes deployed without piloting are organizational gambles — large bets on untested designs.

Connections

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