Principlev1

Start probability estimates from the base rate and adjust

Start probability estimates from the base rate and adjust proportionally to evidence strength, never from an implicit 50/50 prior, to avoid systematic overweighting of individual evidence.

Why This Is a Principle

This principle derives from Automatic Narrative Generation Precedes Conscious Evaluation (narrative overrides statistics), Hindsight Bias and Calibration Necessity (memory reconstructs toward outcomes/hindsight), and Systematic Overconfidence Taxonomy (systematic overconfidence). It prescribes Bayesian updating discipline: anchor on base rate, then adjust. This is prescriptive and actionable, not a statement of how things are.

Source Lessons

L-0151

Base rates matter more than narratives

Statistical base rates predict outcomes better than compelling individual stories. Your brain will fight this truth every time a vivid narrative competes with a dry statistic — and your brain will be wrong.

Connections

Derived From (3)

AxiomAutomatic Narrative Generation Precedes Conscious Evaluation AxiomHindsight Bias and Calibration Necessity AxiomSystematic Overconfidence Taxonomy

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