Principlev1PR-559
Track prediction accuracy against pre-defined thresholds…
Track prediction accuracy against pre-defined thresholds rather than relying on intuitive assessment of model quality, because humans systematically underweight evidence that contradicts their existing beliefs.
Why This Is a Principle
Grounded in Hindsight Bias and Calibration Necessity (memory reconstructs toward outcomes), Systematic Overconfidence Taxonomy (overconfidence), and Belief Perseverance Against Contradictory Evidence (belief perseverance). The principle prescribes objective measurement systems because subjective confidence is unreliable. It's actionable (define and track thresholds) and applies broadly.