Principlev1PR-268
When vivid individual narratives compete with statistical…
When vivid individual narratives compete with statistical base rates for your judgment, deliberately translate the problem into natural frequencies (concrete population counts) to force base rate incorporation into your reasoning.
Why This Is a Principle
This is a derived principle, not an axiom. It follows from Automatic Narrative Generation Precedes Conscious Evaluation (brain generates causal narratives automatically), Availability Heuristic Mechanism (availability/retrieval fluency as frequency proxy), and Natural Frequency Format Advantage (natural frequency representations improve Bayesian reasoning). The principle prescribes a specific action (translate to natural frequencies) that follows from these axioms. It is actionable, general across domains, and addresses the tension between narrative and statistical processing.