Anchor estimates to outside-view base rates before…
Anchor estimates to outside-view base rates before constructing inside-view narratives to correct systematic planning optimism.
Why This Is a Principle
This is reference class forecasting as a debiasing principle. It derives from Humans discount future rewards hyperbolically rather… (hyperbolic discounting/planning fallacy), When estimating future task duration, people naturally adopt (inside view excludes factors that consume time), and Reference class forecasting (using base rates from similar… (outside view produces better estimates). The principle prescribes starting with the base rate, not the story about why this case is different.
Source Lessons
Bayesian updating in practice
Update the strength of your beliefs proportionally to the strength of new evidence.
Calibration requires feedback
You cannot improve the alignment between your confidence and your accuracy without external data that reveals the gap between what you believed and what actually happened. Calibration without feedback is guesswork about guesswork.