Axiomempiricalv1AX-168
When estimating future task duration, people naturally adopt
When estimating future task duration, people naturally adopt an inside view (mental simulation of specific steps) that systematically excludes the factors that actually consume time, leading to consistent underestimation.
Why This Is an Axiom
This is the core mechanism of the planning fallacy identified by Kahneman and Tversky. It is an empirical claim about how human prediction actually operates — not a derived principle but a discovered fact about cognitive architecture. The entire estimation skill framework is built on this being the underlying problem.