Definitionv1DF-143

Prediction tracking

the practice of recording specific probabilistic predictions with confidence levels, reasoning, and resolution dates, then scoring outcomes against stated probabilities to make miscalibrations visible and enable calibration feedback

Why This Is a Definition

This definition precisely establishes the semantic boundary of 'prediction tracking' by identifying its genus (practice of recording predictions) and differentia (specific probabilistic predictions with confidence levels, reasoning, resolution dates, and scoring against outcomes). It distinguishes this from mere prediction-making or memory-based judgment, emphasizing the systematic recording and feedback mechanism that makes calibration possible.

Source Lessons

Track your predictions

Recording what you expect to happen and comparing to what actually happens is the only reliable method for calibrating judgment. Without a written record, hindsight bias rewrites your memory of what you believed, making genuine learning from experience impossible.

Connections

Defines (4)

AxiomHindsight Bias and Calibration Necessity PrincipleCalibrate your internal authority voice by recording past…PrincipleRecord predictions as quantified probabilities with explicit PrincipleTrack both your predictions and your emotional state…

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