Principles
2,201 principles · page 31 of 46
Use information removal (fasting) as a diagnostic tool…
Use information removal (fasting) as a diagnostic tool to reveal genuine needs versus habitual cravings before adding new inputs.
Tag captured information with estimated decay rates…
Tag captured information with estimated decay rates and implement scheduled depreciation reviews to prevent outdated knowledge from corrupting decision-making.
Implement a connection-rate audit where every consumed piece
Implement a connection-rate audit where every consumed piece of information must explicitly link to existing knowledge or be classified as non-learning consumption.
Set detection thresholds based on the relative costs…
Set detection thresholds based on the relative costs of false positives versus false negatives rather than maximizing either sensitivity or specificity alone.
Train perceptual systems through structured pattern exposure
Train perceptual systems through structured pattern exposure rather than through explicit rule-following or information accumulation.
When evidence for a decision is ambiguous and new…
When evidence for a decision is ambiguous and new information is arriving, preserve optionality by delaying commitment rather than forcing resolution.
Define explicit trigger conditions and time bounds…
Define explicit trigger conditions and time bounds for waiting periods to distinguish strategic patience from avoidance behavior.
Calculate the value of delaying irreversible decisions…
Calculate the value of delaying irreversible decisions by comparing the cost of waiting against the expected value of information that will arrive during the delay.
Conduct scheduled recurring audits of information sources…
Conduct scheduled recurring audits of information sources to counteract subscription inertia and source degradation.
Execute source removal decisions immediately during audits…
Execute source removal decisions immediately during audits rather than creating deferral lists, to prevent audit theater that produces no behavioral change.
When capturing information that confirms your existing…
When capturing information that confirms your existing beliefs, deliberately search for and record contradictory evidence before filing the note, creating structural resistance to confirmation bias in your knowledge system.
Before finalizing any important judgment, explicitly…
Before finalizing any important judgment, explicitly construct at least one alternative interpretive frame from a different stakeholder's perspective, forcing your perception outside its default construction.
Structure your AI prompts to request multiple competing…
Structure your AI prompts to request multiple competing interpretations rather than a single answer, using the tool's capacity for parallel hypothesis generation to compensate for your brain's default single-model construction.
Record predictions as quantified probabilities with explicit
Record predictions as quantified probabilities with explicit reasoning and resolution dates before outcomes are known, creating an external reference that defeats hindsight bias and enables calibration feedback.
Aggregate predictions by confidence level and compare stated
Aggregate predictions by confidence level and compare stated probability to actual frequency across dozens of cases rather than evaluating single predictions, as systematic patterns reveal calibration while individual outcomes contain too much noise.
Anchor estimates to outside-view base rates before…
Anchor estimates to outside-view base rates before constructing inside-view narratives to correct systematic planning optimism.
Before committing to irreversible decisions made under…
Before committing to irreversible decisions made under strong emotion, implement a mandatory 12-24 hour delay to allow emotional state to shift and expose state-dependent distortions in your original assessment.
When anxious, apply corrective questions that anchor to base
When anxious, apply corrective questions that anchor to base rates and external data rather than internal feelings, as anxiety systematically inflates threat probability and deflates perceived competence.
When angry, deliberately seek disconfirming evidence…
When angry, deliberately seek disconfirming evidence and independent risk assessments, as anger systematically inflates certainty, deflates risk perception, and increases risk-seeking behavior.
Track both your predictions and your emotional state…
Track both your predictions and your emotional state at prediction time, then analyze correlation patterns to build a personal emotional distortion profile showing which emotions warp which judgments by how much.
When identifying overconfidence in retrospective prediction…
When identifying overconfidence in retrospective prediction reviews, widen future confidence intervals by 2-3x in that domain until hit rates align with stated probabilities, using mechanical correction where intuitive adjustment fails.
When group consensus forms quickly, assign one person…
When group consensus forms quickly, assign one person the role of constructing the strongest case against the consensus before finalizing decisions, as naive realism operates at group level and suppresses dissent systematically.
Schedule consequential decisions outside metabolic depletion
Schedule consequential decisions outside metabolic depletion windows and defer irreversible commitments when running a sleep deficit of more than one hour.
Maintain external cognitive systems with the same rigor…
Maintain external cognitive systems with the same rigor as internal cognitive health, because a disorganized external system is functionally equivalent to degraded biological memory when that system constitutes part of your thinking.
Implement controlled breathing at approximately six breaths…
Implement controlled breathing at approximately six breaths per minute before high-stakes decisions to reverse stress-induced prefrontal cortex impairment.
Before estimating event frequency or probability, explicitly
Before estimating event frequency or probability, explicitly ask whether you are reasoning about base rates or about the ease of mentally retrieving vivid examples.
Maintain decision logs that record the domain…
Maintain decision logs that record the domain, your intuitive estimate, the actual base rate, and the vivid example that inflated the estimate to build a personal availability calibration map.
Consult full historical records before consequential…
Consult full historical records before consequential judgments to prevent recent data points in your cognitive buffer from overwriting distributional evidence.
Define regime-change thresholds in advance for each domain…
Define regime-change thresholds in advance for each domain you monitor to distinguish between variance within the existing distribution and genuine structural shifts requiring model updates.
When vivid individual narratives compete with statistical…
When vivid individual narratives compete with statistical base rates for your judgment, deliberately translate the problem into natural frequencies (concrete population counts) to force base rate incorporation into your reasoning.
Start probability estimates from the base rate and adjust…
Start probability estimates from the base rate and adjust proportionally to evidence strength, never from an implicit 50/50 prior, to avoid systematic overweighting of individual evidence.
When extending judgment or confidence…
When extending judgment or confidence from a high-calibration domain to a low-calibration domain, explicitly downgrade your confidence level and apply structured meta-cognitive protocols rather than relying on the portable feeling of expertise.
Frame pre-mortem exercises to legitimize dissent by making…
Frame pre-mortem exercises to legitimize dissent by making failure the official premise, removing social barriers to expressing doubt that standard planning meetings suppress.
For every significant belief you hold, explicitly specify…
For every significant belief you hold, explicitly specify the observation or evidence that would cause you to abandon it; if you cannot specify falsification conditions, treat the belief as epistemically suspect.
Generate at least two genuinely plausible alternative…
Generate at least two genuinely plausible alternative hypotheses for any phenomenon before testing, then design experiments that can exclude hypotheses rather than merely confirm your preferred one.
Use AI systems as externalized disconfirmation generators…
Use AI systems as externalized disconfirmation generators by explicitly instructing them to attack your reasoning and construct the strongest counterarguments, then engage seriously with outputs that produce genuine surprise.
Collect structured peer feedback from five diverse…
Collect structured peer feedback from five diverse, independent observers using identical questions, then treat convergent signals (patterns appearing in multiple responses) as higher-confidence blind spot detections than any single observation.
Design feedback requests to focus on specific, observable…
Design feedback requests to focus on specific, observable behaviors rather than character judgments, and solicit them rather than waiting for spontaneous feedback, to shift attention from self-level threat to task-level calibration.
Make predictions specific enough to score objectively rather
Make predictions specific enough to score objectively rather than vague enough to be unfalsifiable.
Analyze calibration separately for different domains because
Analyze calibration separately for different domains because bias susceptibility is domain-specific rather than general.
Decompose prediction accuracy into calibration (do…
Decompose prediction accuracy into calibration (do your probabilities match reality) and resolution (can you distinguish probable from improbable) to diagnose different types of forecasting errors.
Update beliefs incrementally in proportion to the diagnostic
Update beliefs incrementally in proportion to the diagnostic value of evidence rather than the emotional intensity of evidence.
Translate probabilistic reasoning into natural frequencies…
Translate probabilistic reasoning into natural frequencies (counts out of a reference class) rather than abstract percentages to align with evolutionarily grounded cognitive mechanisms.
Before updating a belief, explicitly estimate both…
Before updating a belief, explicitly estimate both the direction and magnitude of the update in writing to prevent conservatism and base rate neglect.
Track not just prediction accuracy but also the frequency…
Track not just prediction accuracy but also the frequency and magnitude of belief updates to detect systematic conservatism or overreaction patterns.
Build a personal bias profile that identifies which specific
Build a personal bias profile that identifies which specific biases operate most strongly in which domains rather than treating bias awareness as general knowledge.
Distinguish between systematic bias (errors in a consistent…
Distinguish between systematic bias (errors in a consistent direction) and noise (random scatter) because they require fundamentally different correction strategies.
Use 'consider the opposite' as a deliberate practice before…
Use 'consider the opposite' as a deliberate practice before finalizing judgments to counteract confirmation bias by forcing processing of disconfirming evidence.