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How to ThinkIn the Age of AI
Principlev1PR-892

Test your riskiest assumptions first with the cheapest…

Test your riskiest assumptions first with the cheapest possible tests before committing significant resources to execution.

Why This Is a Principle

Core fail-fast principle from L-0484. Grounded in Humans discount future rewards hyperbolically rather… (hyperbolic discounting), Humans escalate commitment to failing courses of action… (escalation of commitment), When estimating future task duration, people naturally adopt (planning fallacy), and Reference class forecasting (using base rates from similar… (reference class forecasting). Prescribes sequencing by risk and cost.