Principlev1
When planning task duration, deliberately switch from
When planning task duration, deliberately switch from inside-view scenario construction to outside-view base-rate consultation to override the planning fallacy embedded in future-oriented schemas.
Why This Is a Principle
Derives directly from Mental Models Are Singular by Default (single mental model), When estimating future task duration, people naturally adopt (inside view excludes duration factors), and Reference class forecasting (using base rates from similar (reference class forecasting more accurate). This is a clear, actionable principle for temporal planning—tells you WHAT to do (switch schemas) and HOW (consult base rates). Strong grounding in axioms about cognitive bias.