Principlev1PR-396
Calculate your actual prediction accuracy across documented…
Calculate your actual prediction accuracy across documented tests rather than relying on felt sense of how often you're right, because subjective confidence systematically exceeds objective accuracy.
Why This Is a Principle
Derives from Systematic Overconfidence Taxonomy (overconfidence—subjective confidence exceeds objective accuracy) and Hindsight Bias and Calibration Necessity (memory shifts beliefs toward alignment with known outcomes). The principle prescribes quantitative calibration based on documented history. Actionable and strongly grounded.
Source Lessons
Document your validation results
Recording what you tested and what happened creates a validation history.
Validation builds warranted confidence
Confidence based on tested schemas is categorically different from confidence based on untested assumptions.
Schemas about risk
Your risk model determines what you attempt and what you avoid.
The cost of miscategorization
Putting something in the wrong category means the wrong actions get applied to it.