Principlev1

Prospective hindsight—imagining a future failure has already

Prospective hindsight—imagining a future failure has already occurred—increases identification of causal factors by 30% compared to forward-looking prediction by shifting cognition from advocacy to explanation mode.

Why This Is a Principle

Grounds to Systematic Overconfidence Taxonomy (systematic overconfidence) and Mental Models Are Singular by Default (people construct single mental models). Prescribes the pre-mortem technique to counter these biases—general principle for risk identification.

Source Lessons

L-0412

Test agents before deploying

Run through scenarios mentally or in low-stakes situations before relying on a new agent.

Connections

Derived From (2)

AxiomSystematic Overconfidence Taxonomy AxiomMental Models Are Singular by Default

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