Pre-mortem your critical schemas: what would early obsolescence signs look like? Have you seen them?
Run a pre-mortem on each critical schema by specifying what the early warning signs would look like if that model is becoming obsolete, then check whether you have already seen some of those signs.
Why This Is a Rule
Schemas don't fail suddenly — they become obsolete gradually as the environment shifts. The problem is that the gradual shift is invisible from inside the schema: each day looks similar to the previous one, and the cumulative drift only becomes apparent when the schema produces a spectacular failure. By then, the schema has been wrong for weeks or months.
The schema pre-mortem identifies early warning signs before the spectacular failure. "If my hiring schema is becoming obsolete, I would expect to see: candidates who pass all criteria but underperform, a shift in what top performers actually do versus what the criteria measure, and increasing time-to-fill despite adequate candidate flow." Now you have specific observables to monitor.
The second step — checking whether you've already seen those signs — often produces the most valuable insight. Frequently, the warning signs are already present but were being explained away individually. The pre-mortem exercise connects them into a pattern that demands attention.
When This Fires
- During periodic reviews of critical schemas (Match review frequency to volatility: weekly for fast-changing, quarterly for stable, instant for surprises)
- When a schema "still works" but you suspect the environment has shifted
- Before high-stakes decisions that depend on schemas that haven't been tested recently
- Any time a critical belief hasn't been challenged despite environmental change
Common Failure Mode
Specifying warning signs that are too vague to detect: "things would feel different" or "results would decline." Specific: "time-to-hire would exceed 6 weeks for roles that used to fill in 3" or "more than 2 of 5 recent hires would receive 'needs improvement' in their first review." Specific warning signs are monitorable; vague ones are invisible.
The Protocol
For each critical schema: (1) Assume the schema is becoming obsolete. (2) Write 3-5 specific early warning signs you would expect to see if obsolescence is occurring. Make them observable and measurable. (3) Check: have you already seen any of these signs? (4) If yes → the schema may already be drifting. Investigate immediately. (5) If no → the schema passes the pre-mortem. Add the warning signs to your monitoring list and check again at the next review cycle.