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How to ThinkIn the Age of AI
Principlev1PR-909

Separate what you expected from what actually happened…

Separate what you expected from what actually happened by externalizing predictions before outcomes occur, creating a fixed reference that hindsight bias cannot rewrite.

Why This Is a Principle

This principle derives from Hindsight Bias and Calibration Necessity (memory reconstruction creates hindsight bias) and Belief Perseverance Against Contradictory Evidence (beliefs persist even when evidence is eliminated). It prescribes how to protect against retrospective distortion: write down expectations beforehand so they can't be revised to match outcomes.