Lessons tagged “bayesian-updating”

2 published lessons with this tag.

Bayesian updating in practice

Update the strength of your beliefs proportionally to the strength of new evidence.

Updating is not admitting defeat

Revising a model in response to evidence is the defining act of a strong thinker. The refusal to update is not confidence — it is cognitive debt accumulating interest.

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A/B-testing AI-agents AI-augmented-cognition AI-context BLUF DRY-principle Feynman-technique GTD MECE OODA-loop PDCA PKM Popper RACI SRE T-shaped-expertise Unix-philosophy ablation abstraction acceleration accommodation accountability accretion accuracy action action-bias active-learning adaptation adaptive-expertise adaptive-systems adaptive-thinking adversarial-environments adversarial-thinking affect-as-information affect-heuristic affect-labeling affordances after-action-review agency agent-design agents ai ai-augmentation alarm-fatigue algorithms alignment analog analogical-reasoning analogical-thinking analysis anomalies antifragility anxiety architectural-decision-records architecture-decision-records argument-mapping argumentation assessment assumptions atomic-notes atomicity attachment attention attention-fatigue attention-management attribution audience-awareness audience-management authority autobiographical-memory automatic-cognition automaticity automation automation-complacency autonomy availability-heuristic aviation avoidance awareness backlinks balance balancing-loops base-rate-fallacy baselines batch-processing bayesian-reasoning bayesian-thinking bayesian-updating behavior behavior-change behavior-design behavioral-audit behavioral-change behavioral-design behavioral-economics behavioral-scaffolding behavioral-scripts belief-change belief-conflict belief-formation belief-perseverance belief-revision belief-systems benchmarking bias bias-blind-spot blame blind-spots blockers boolean-logic boredom bottleneck bottleneck-analysis bottlenecks boundary-conditions boundary-testing bounded-rationality burnout calendar-systems calibration capstone capture cascading-failure categorization category-revision category-theory causal reasoning causal-reasoning chain-of-thought change change-management change-velocity changelog checklists choice-architecture chronotype chunking circadian-rhythm circadian-rhythms clarity classification clustering cognition cognitive-architecture cognitive-authority cognitive-awareness cognitive-bias cognitive-blind-spots cognitive-closure cognitive-coherence cognitive-conflict cognitive-consistency cognitive-defusion cognitive-development cognitive-dissonance cognitive-distortion cognitive-distortions cognitive-diversity cognitive-efficiency cognitive-empathy cognitive-ergonomics cognitive-extension cognitive-flexibility cognitive-freedom cognitive-function cognitive-inertia cognitive-infrastructure cognitive-integrity cognitive-load cognitive-offloading cognitive-patterns cognitive-performance cognitive-psychology cognitive-restoration cognitive-restructuring cognitive-rigidity cognitive-scaffolding cognitive-schemas cognitive-science cognitive-systems cognitive-tools cognitive-training coherence collaboration collective-intelligence commitment commitment-devices communication comparison compatibility competitive-advantage completeness complexity composability composition compound-effects compound-growth compound-knowledge compounding compression concept-drift concept-mapping concrete-examples concurrency confidence confirmation-bias conflict conflict-resolution conformity connections consilience consistency constraints constructive-development constructivism containment context context-collapse context-design context-engineering context-sensitivity context-switching contextual-intelligence continual-learning continuous-improvement contradiction control convergence conversations coordination coordination-costs cost-benefit cost-of-quality creative-tension creativity credit-assignment critical-thinking cross-cultural-communication cross-domain cross-pollination cultural-conditioning cultural-context cultural-evolution curation curiosity cybernetics cycles daily-practice dashboard dashboards data data-driven data-driven-decisions deadlock debiasing debt debugging decision-automation decision-criteria decision-documentation decision-fatigue decision-frameworks decision-journal decision-journaling decision-making decision-speed decisions decomposition decontextualization deep-work default-mode default-mode-network default-thinking defaults defensive-routines definitions degradation delayed-feedback delays delegation deliberate-practice dependencies dependency dependency-graphs dependency-management dependency-mapping deployment deprecation depth-of-processing design-patterns design-thinking deskilling development developmental-stages diagrams dialectical-thinking dialectics difficult-conversations digital digital-communication digital-detox digital-environment digital-minimalism digital-tools diminishing-returns direct-observation directed-acyclic-graph directed-attention directed-graph directed-graphs disambiguation discovery disruption dissent distraction distress-tolerance distributed-cognition diversification diversity documentation domain-dependence domain-sensitivity domain-specificity dopamine drift dual-coding dual-process-theory dynamic-systems echo-chambers ecological-validity economics ecosystem-health edge-cases effectiveness efficiency einstellung-effect email embodied-cognition emergence emotion-regulation emotional-calibration emotional-context emotional-granularity emotional-regulation emotions enabling-conditions encoding encoding-specificity energy energy-management entropy environment environment-design environmental-design epistemic-autonomy epistemic-courage epistemic-emotion epistemic-fluency epistemic-growth epistemic-honesty epistemic-humility epistemic-hygiene epistemic-maintenance epistemic-practice epistemic-survival epistemic-trust epistemic-virtue epistemics epistemology error-budgets error-correction error-detection error-driven-learning error-prevention errors ethics evaluation evergreen-notes evidence evidence-synthesis evidence-tracking evolution evolution-log exceptions execution executive-function exemplification exercise experiential-learning experimentation experiments expert-disagreement expertise explicit-knowledge exploration-exploitation exponential-growth expressive-writing extended-mind external-forces external-memory externalization externalized-cognition faceted-classification fail-fast failure failure-analysis failure-modes false-positives falsifiability falsification fault-tolerance feedback feedback-loops felt-sense feynman-technique filter-bubbles filtering finance first-party-data first-principles flow flow-state fluency flywheel focus force-multiplier forecasting forgetting-curve formal-knowledge foundations fractal-patterns fragility frame-analysis framework-thinking frameworks framing-effects friction gap-analysis general-semantics generation-effect gestalt goal-setting goals goodharts-law graceful-degradation granularity graph-hygiene graph-theory graphs grounding groupthink growth growth-edges growth-mindset guard-clauses habit-audit habit-creation habit-design habit-formation habit-interruption habit-stacking habit-tracking habits handoff handoffs handwriting health hermeneutics heuristics hierarchy hindsight-bias history homeostasis human-error human-in-the-loop hypothesis hypothesis-testing identifiers identity identity-development illusion-of-knowledge illusory-correlation implementation implementation-intentions implicit-bias implicit-cognition inbox inbox-processing incentive-structures incremental incremental-learning incremental-updates incubation indicators indirect-evidence individuation inference information information-architecture information-diet information-literacy information-management information-overload information-quality information-systems information-theory infrastructure inheritance inner-speech innovation inquiry insight institutional-memory integration integrity intellectual-honesty intellectual-humility intention interdisciplinary interface-design interfaces interoception interpersonal interpretation intervention intrinsic-motivation introspection intuition inventory invisible-assumptions iteration iterative-improvement iterative-refinement journaling judgment kaizen karl-popper kill-criteria knowledge knowledge representation knowledge-architecture knowledge-construction knowledge-decay knowledge-gaps knowledge-graph knowledge-graphs knowledge-limits knowledge-management knowledge-organization knowledge-representation knowledge-structures knowledge-transfer language latency lattice leadership lean learning learning-curve learning-sequence letting go levels-of-analysis leverage lifecycle lifelong-learning limits lindy-effect linguistic-relativity linking local-optima locus-of-control long-term-thinking longevity loss-aversion maintenance management management-by-exception mapping marginal-gains mastery matthew-effect meaning meaning-making measurement mechanisms media-literacy meditation meetings memory mental-accounting mental-models mental-rehearsal meta-cognition meta-learning meta-reasoning meta-schemas meta-skill metacognition metadata metrics micromanagement migration mindfulness mindset miscommunication missing-connections model-updating models modularity monitoring mood mood-congruent-memory motivated-reasoning motivation multi-agent multi-agent-systems multi-dimensional multimodal-capture multiple-perspectives multitasking naive-realism naming narrative-identity navigation negative-capability negative-space nesting network-analysis network-effects network-science network-theory network-topology neuroplasticity neuroscience noise noise-filtering non-attachment non-judgmental-awareness normalization-of-deviance note-linking note-taking notifications nuance nudge-design nudge-theory nvc obedience observability observation observer-effect ontology optimization optionality orchestration ordering organization organizational-behavior organizational-learning organizational-memory outcome-thinking overconfidence overhead override pace-layering paradigm paradigm-shift paradox pareto-principle path-dependence patience pattern-libraries pattern-recognition patterns peer-feedback peer-review perception perceptual-calibration perceptual-learning perfectionism performance performance-metrics performance-testing person-perception personal-epistemology personal-informatics personal-knowledge-management personal-mastery personal-philosophy perspective perspective-taking phase-capstone phase-closer phase-finale phase-opener phenomenology photo-notes phronesis physiology plain-text planning poka-yoke polarity polarity-management polyhierarchy polymath polysemy portability portfolio portfolio-thinking positive-disintegration positivity post-mortems practical-wisdom practice pragmatics pragmatism pre-commitment pre-mortem precision precommitment prediction prediction-error prediction-tracking prerequisite presentations presentism preventive-review priorities prioritization priority proactive probability-estimation problem-identification problem-solving procedural-memory process-design process-philosophy processes processing procrastination production-systems productive-failure productivity professional-development progress progressive-commitment progressive-disclosure progressive-summarization prompt-engineering propagation prospective-memory protocols prototype-theory provenance pruning psychological-safety purpose quality quantified-self questions reaction-time reactivity real-options reasoning rebalancing reclassification recombination recovery recursion recursive-improvement red-teaming redundancy refactoring reference refinement reflection reflective-practice regret reinforcement-learning reinforcing-loops relational-thinking relationship taxonomy relationship-lifecycle relationship-mapping relationship-strength relationships reliability repetition requirements resilience resistance resolution resource-allocation responsibility rest retirement retrieval retrospective reuse reversibility review review-cadence review-process revision risk risk-assessment risk-management risk-perception risk-tolerance rituals robustness role-clarity roles root-cause-analysis routines rules rumination safety salience sampling sapir-whorf satisficing savings scaffolding scale-invariance scaling scheduled-review scheduling schema schema-awareness schema-design schema-evolution schema-literacy schema-theory schema-therapy schemas scientific-method scope seasonal second-brain second-order section-capstone section-closer section-opener self-assessment self-authority self-awareness self-control self-deception self-design self-direction self-efficacy self-examination self-explanation self-healing self-knowledge self-management self-model self-monitoring self-organization self-reference self-regulation self-schema self-similarity self-tracking semantic-ambiguity semantic-links sensemaking sensitivity sequences sequencing shallow-work shared-mental-models shared-state signal-detection signal-noise signal-processing signal-vs-noise simplicity single-point-of-failure single-responsibility situated-cognition situational-awareness skill-atrophy skill-building sleep slow-looking small-bets social categorization social-cognition social-epistemology social-influence social-learning social-media social-skills somatic-awareness somatic-markers source-evaluation sovereignty spaced-repetition spatial-cognition specialization specification specificity speed spiral-curriculum state-dependent-learning state-machines statistical-thinking statistics stopping-rules strategy strategy-selection strengths strengths-based stress stress-management stress-testing structural-holes structure structured-reasoning structured-thinking subtraction success succession sunk-cost superforecasting surprise synthesis system-1 system-1-thinking system-design system-dynamics system-structure systematic-bias systems systems-thinking tacit-knowledge tagging task-batching task-design task-switching taxonomy teaching team-cognition technical-debt templates temporal-cognition temporal-contiguity temporal-discounting temporal-logic temporal-networks temporal-reasoning temporal-self testing theory-of-constraints theory-of-mind thinking thinking-tools thresholds throughput tight-coupling time time-management tools tools-for-thought toyota-production-system tracking tradeoffs transaction-costs transactive-memory transcription transfer transfer-learning transformation transformative-learning transitivity trend-analysis triage triangulation triggers trust type-safety type-system typed-links uncertainty understanding unified-theory unified-understanding ux-design validation values variable-isolation verification version-control versioning via-negativa visual-thinking visualization voice voice-notes waste-elimination wayfinding weekly-review weighted-relationships wisdom workflow workflows working-memory workspace world-models worldview writing writing-as-thinking writing-to-think zettelkasten

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