What does it mean that seek disconfirming evidence?

Actively looking for evidence against your current belief is the fastest path to calibration.

Example: You believe your startup's churn is caused by poor onboarding. Instead of gathering more data about onboarding friction (which would confirm what you already suspect), you deliberately investigate the three strongest alternative explanations: pricing misalignment, feature gaps, and support response time. You discover that 68% of churned users never opened a support ticket — they left because a competitor launched a feature you deprioritized. The disconfirming evidence didn't just correct your belief. It changed your roadmap.

Try this: Pick one belief you currently hold with high confidence — about your work, your skills, your team, or your market. Write it as a clear statement. Now spend 15 minutes searching exclusively for evidence that would prove it wrong. Talk to someone who disagrees with you, read the strongest critique, or look at data you have been avoiding. Write down what you find. If you cannot find any disconfirming evidence after a genuine search, your belief is either well-calibrated or unfalsifiable — and you should know which.