Why does false positive rate fail?

The most common reason false positive rate fails: Treating every activation as evidence the agent works. You see 'my break reminder fired 40 times this week' and conclude the agent is diligent, without asking how many of those 40 times actually required a break. High activation count feels like high utility. It is often the opposite — it is the sound of an agent training you to ignore it.

The fix: Pick one cognitive agent you have running — a reminder, a habit trigger, a journaling prompt, an automated check-in. Over the next seven days, track every time it fires. For each activation, mark it as either 'true positive' (it fired and you genuinely needed the intervention) or 'false positive' (it fired but the trigger condition wasn't actually present, or the response wasn't needed). Calculate your false positive rate: false positives divided by total activations. If the rate exceeds 50%, redesign the trigger condition before the agent becomes background noise.

The underlying principle is straightforward: An agent that fires when it shouldn't wastes your attention and erodes trust.