Frequently asked questions about thinking, epistemology, and cognitive tools. 3434 answers
You overestimate the likelihood of events you can easily recall examples of. The availability heuristic substitutes the question "how frequent is this?" with the question "how easily can I think of an example?" — and the substitution happens below conscious awareness, which means you feel like you.
You overestimate the likelihood of events you can easily recall examples of. The availability heuristic substitutes the question "how frequent is this?" with the question "how easily can I think of an example?" — and the substitution happens below conscious awareness, which means you feel like you.
Recent events disproportionately influence your perception of what is normal or likely.
Recent events disproportionately influence your perception of what is normal or likely.
Recent events disproportionately influence your perception of what is normal or likely.
Recent events disproportionately influence your perception of what is normal or likely.
Recent events disproportionately influence your perception of what is normal or likely.
Recent events disproportionately influence your perception of what is normal or likely.
Statistical base rates predict outcomes better than compelling individual stories. Your brain will fight this truth every time a vivid narrative competes with a dry statistic — and your brain will be wrong.
Statistical base rates predict outcomes better than compelling individual stories. Your brain will fight this truth every time a vivid narrative competes with a dry statistic — and your brain will be wrong.
Statistical base rates predict outcomes better than compelling individual stories. Your brain will fight this truth every time a vivid narrative competes with a dry statistic — and your brain will be wrong.
Statistical base rates predict outcomes better than compelling individual stories. Your brain will fight this truth every time a vivid narrative competes with a dry statistic — and your brain will be wrong.
Statistical base rates predict outcomes better than compelling individual stories. Your brain will fight this truth every time a vivid narrative competes with a dry statistic — and your brain will be wrong.
Statistical base rates predict outcomes better than compelling individual stories. Your brain will fight this truth every time a vivid narrative competes with a dry statistic — and your brain will be wrong.
Being well-calibrated in one area does not transfer automatically to others.
Being well-calibrated in one area does not transfer automatically to others.
Being well-calibrated in one area does not transfer automatically to others.
Being well-calibrated in one area does not transfer automatically to others.
Imagining failure in advance corrects for optimistic perception biases.
Imagining failure in advance corrects for optimistic perception biases.
Imagining failure in advance corrects for optimistic perception biases.
Actively looking for evidence against your current belief is the fastest path to calibration.
Actively looking for evidence against your current belief is the fastest path to calibration.
Actively looking for evidence against your current belief is the fastest path to calibration.