Frequently asked questions about thinking, epistemology, and cognitive tools. 567 answers
For one week, keep a Base Rate Log. Each time you encounter a vivid anecdote — a news story, a personal account, a social media post, a colleague's experience — that makes you feel like something is common, dangerous, or likely, stop. Write down your gut estimate of the probability. Then look up.
Pick a decision or project you're currently planning. Set a timer for ten minutes. Write at the top of a page: 'It is [date six months from now]. This has failed completely.' Now write every reason you can think of for why it failed. Do not filter. Do not rank. Just generate. When the timer ends,.
Pick one belief you currently hold with high confidence — about your work, your skills, your team, or your market. Write it as a clear statement. Now spend 15 minutes searching exclusively for evidence that would prove it wrong. Talk to someone who disagrees with you, read the strongest critique,.
Identify three people who observe you in different contexts — a colleague, a friend, and a family member. Ask each one the same three questions: (1) What is something I do that I probably do not realize I do? (2) What is something I seem to believe about myself that does not match what you.
Pick a belief you currently hold with moderate confidence — a prediction about your career, a judgment about a colleague's competence, an assumption about how a project will unfold. Write it down with a probability: 'I am X% confident that Y.' Now identify the single most important piece of.
Conduct a Phase 8 Calibration Audit. For each of the five dimensions below, rate yourself 1-5 on current practice quality, then identify your single biggest gap. (1) Physiological awareness: How consistently do you monitor sleep, stress, hunger, and emotional state before high-stakes judgments?.
Choose one piece of information you encountered today — a number, a statement, a data point, a message. Write it down stripped of all context. Then interpret it in three different contexts: (1) the original context where you first encountered it, (2) a professional context where it would mean.
Pick one belief you hold about how communication 'should' work — for example, 'people should say what they mean directly' or 'good leaders listen before speaking.' Now research how that norm operates in three different cultures. Write down the cultural logic behind each variation. The goal is not.
For one week, keep a Temporal Audit Log. Every time you encounter a claim, recommendation, or piece of advice — in a book, article, conversation, or your own memory — write down three things: (1) the claim itself, (2) when it was established or when the source was produced, and (3) what has.
Pick your last five messages sent via text, Slack, or email. For each one, write down: (1) what you intended the tone to be, (2) what contextual cues you relied on the recipient having, and (3) what the message would mean to a stranger reading it cold. Count how many of the five could be misread..
Pick one behavior in your organization that frustrates you — missed deadlines, siloed communication, risk aversion, whatever recurs despite everyone agreeing it's a problem. Now answer: What does the system reward? What does it punish? What does it measure? Map the actual incentive structure, not.
Identify one belief you hold strongly that most of your close peers also hold. Write it down. Now write the strongest possible argument against it — not a straw man, the actual steel-man case. Notice how much harder this is than it should be. The difficulty isn't intellectual. It's social. Your.
Pick one recurring problem — personal or professional — that you've encountered at least twice. Write the full history: when it first appeared, what you tried, what worked temporarily, what failed, what conditions preceded each recurrence. Be specific about dates, decisions, and contexts. Now.
Pick a message you sent in the last week — an email, Slack message, or document. Reread it as if you know nothing about the project, the conversation history, or your intent. Identify every assumption the reader would need to already hold for the message to land correctly. Rewrite it with those.
Right now, list every context you are currently holding — not tasks, but contexts. Roles you are occupying (employee, parent, friend, decision-maker). Concerns running in the background (financial, relational, professional). Frames you are interpreting the world through (deadline pressure,.
Pick a decision you made in the past six months that didn't turn out as planned. Before evaluating it, write down everything you can remember about the conditions at the time: what you knew, what you didn't know, what pressures you faced, what alternatives you considered, and what evidence.
Choose a decision you are currently facing or a position you hold on a contested topic. Open a blank document and write your reasoning chain in numbered steps, starting from your first premise and ending at your conclusion. Each step must connect to the next with an explicit warrant — a stated.
Choose one goal you have been carrying in your head for at least two weeks. Write it down in a single sentence that includes: (1) a specific action, (2) a measurable outcome, and (3) a deadline. Then write one implementation intention beneath it: 'When [situation], I will [action].' Place this.
Pick one active project or decision. Set a timer for ten minutes. Write down every assumption you can identify — about the people involved, the timeline, the resources, the market, the technology, your own capabilities. Aim for at least fifteen. Then mark each one: (K) for assumptions you have.
Open a blank page. Write the heading 'What I say matters most' and list your top 5 priorities — the things you would tell a close friend are most important to you right now. Then write a second heading: 'Where my last 7 days actually went.' Log every major time block from memory. Compare the two.
Choose one belief that currently drives significant decisions in your life — about your career trajectory, your primary relationship, your health, your finances, or your creative work. Do not pick a trivial belief. Pick one that shapes how you allocate time, energy, or money. Now draw it. Not in.
Set a timer for two minutes. Write down every blocker you are currently aware of — anything preventing progress on any project, goal, or commitment in your life right now. Do not filter. Do not solve. Just name. Use the form: 'I cannot [action] because [specific obstacle].' After two minutes,.
For the next seven days, set three alarms (morning, midday, evening). At each alarm, write down: (1) energy level 1-10, (2) mood in one word, (3) what you were doing in the last hour. Use paper, a notes app, or a spreadsheet — format doesn't matter, consistency does. On day eight, read all 21.
Choose one thing you learned today — from a conversation, a book, an article, a meeting, a podcast, anything. Before the day ends, write about it for ten minutes using this structure: (1) The claim — state the core idea in one sentence, in your own words, not the author's. (2) The evidence — what.