Frequently asked questions about thinking, epistemology, and cognitive tools. 3434 answers
Actively looking for evidence against your current belief is the fastest path to calibration.
Other perspectives correct for your systematic blind spots.
Other perspectives correct for your systematic blind spots.
Other perspectives correct for your systematic blind spots.
Other perspectives correct for your systematic blind spots.
Other perspectives correct for your systematic blind spots.
Other perspectives correct for your systematic blind spots.
A log of predictions and outcomes shows you exactly where your perception is off.
A log of predictions and outcomes shows you exactly where your perception is off.
A log of predictions and outcomes shows you exactly where your perception is off.
Update the strength of your beliefs proportionally to the strength of new evidence.
Update the strength of your beliefs proportionally to the strength of new evidence.
Update the strength of your beliefs proportionally to the strength of new evidence.
Update the strength of your beliefs proportionally to the strength of new evidence.
Update the strength of your beliefs proportionally to the strength of new evidence.
Everyone has specific recurring distortions — identify yours. Generic bias literacy is not enough. You need a personal bias profile: the particular set of systematic errors your brain commits most frequently, in the specific domains where those errors cost you the most.
Everyone has specific recurring distortions — identify yours. Generic bias literacy is not enough. You need a personal bias profile: the particular set of systematic errors your brain commits most frequently, in the specific domains where those errors cost you the most.
Everyone has specific recurring distortions — identify yours. Generic bias literacy is not enough. You need a personal bias profile: the particular set of systematic errors your brain commits most frequently, in the specific domains where those errors cost you the most.
True humility is not thinking less of yourself but having an accurate model of your capabilities.
True humility is not thinking less of yourself but having an accurate model of your capabilities.
True humility is not thinking less of yourself but having an accurate model of your capabilities.
The ability to see clearly — not optimistically, not pessimistically, but accurately — is rarer and more valuable than most technical skills. Calibrated perception compounds into better decisions, and better decisions compound into better outcomes at every timescale.
The ability to see clearly — not optimistically, not pessimistically, but accurately — is rarer and more valuable than most technical skills. Calibrated perception compounds into better decisions, and better decisions compound into better outcomes at every timescale.
The ability to see clearly — not optimistically, not pessimistically, but accurately — is rarer and more valuable than most technical skills. Calibrated perception compounds into better decisions, and better decisions compound into better outcomes at every timescale.