Frequently asked questions about thinking, epistemology, and cognitive tools. 1490 answers
Being well-calibrated in one area does not transfer automatically to others.
Being well-calibrated in one area does not transfer automatically to others.
Imagining failure in advance corrects for optimistic perception biases.
Imagining failure in advance corrects for optimistic perception biases.
Pick a decision or project you're currently planning. Set a timer for ten minutes. Write at the top of a page: 'It is [date six months from now]. This has failed completely.' Now write every reason you can think of for why it failed. Do not filter. Do not rank. Just generate. When the timer ends,.
Running a pre-mortem as a compliance ritual instead of a genuine imagination exercise. If participants are generating 'safe' failures that everyone already knows about (budget overruns, timeline slips), the technique is being domesticated. The power comes from surfacing the failures people sense.
Imagining failure in advance corrects for optimistic perception biases.
Actively looking for evidence against your current belief is the fastest path to calibration.
Actively looking for evidence against your current belief is the fastest path to calibration.
Actively looking for evidence against your current belief is the fastest path to calibration.
Pick one belief you currently hold with high confidence — about your work, your skills, your team, or your market. Write it as a clear statement. Now spend 15 minutes searching exclusively for evidence that would prove it wrong. Talk to someone who disagrees with you, read the strongest critique,.
Performing a half-hearted search for disconfirming evidence, finding nothing convincing, and using that failure as additional confirmation. This is the most common way people co-opt this practice: 'I looked for reasons I was wrong and couldn't find any — so I must be even more right.' The test is.
Actively looking for evidence against your current belief is the fastest path to calibration.
Other perspectives correct for your systematic blind spots.
Other perspectives correct for your systematic blind spots.
Other perspectives correct for your systematic blind spots.
Other perspectives correct for your systematic blind spots.
Other perspectives correct for your systematic blind spots.
Identify three people who observe you in different contexts — a colleague, a friend, and a family member. Ask each one the same three questions: (1) What is something I do that I probably do not realize I do? (2) What is something I seem to believe about myself that does not match what you.
Treating feedback as a referendum on your character rather than data about your calibration. When someone tells you that you interrupt people, the miscalibrated response is to feel attacked and defend your intentions. The calibrated response is to update your model: your perception of your own.
Other perspectives correct for your systematic blind spots.
A log of predictions and outcomes shows you exactly where your perception is off.
A log of predictions and outcomes shows you exactly where your perception is off.
A log of predictions and outcomes shows you exactly where your perception is off.