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How to ThinkIn the Age of AI

Concepts

The irreducible epistemic atoms underlying the curriculum. 4,828 atoms across 8 types

Rule

Decision journal entries need six fields captured before…

When recording a decision in a journal, capture six mandatory elements before outcome is known: date/time, one-sentence decision, reasoning chain, expected outcome (falsifiable), confidence percentage, and current mental/physical state.

1 lessondecision-makingjournalingcalibration
Rule

Review decisions in three steps

When reviewing decision journal entries, follow the three-step sequence: (1) re-read original reasoning with outcome hidden, (2) predict outcome based only on original reasoning, (3) uncover actual outcome and compare all three—this sequence defeats hindsight bias.

1 lessondecision-makinghindsight-biascalibration
Rule

After 30+ journal entries, calculate your calibration…

Across 30+ decision journal entries, calculate your calibration by grouping decisions by stated confidence level (e.g., all 70% predictions) and checking whether that percentage actually occurred—use this ratio to adjust future confidence statements.

1 lessondecision-makingcalibrationprobabilistic-thinking
Rule

Trust is a dynamic variable — extend verification…

Extend verification intervals when a delegate produces consistent quality outputs over time, and tighten intervals when errors surface, treating trust as a dynamic variable calibrated by accumulated evidence rather than a fixed initial condition.

1 lessontrustverificationcalibration
Rule

Build dissent authority through demonstrated competence…

Build authority to dissent through demonstrated competence and calibrated prediction tracking, because self-authority without proven expertise is indistinguishable from arrogance and carries no credible weight.

1 lessoncredibilityexpertisecalibration
Rule

Classify self-trust gaps as competence deficits…

When self-trust gaps appear, classify them as either competence deficits (lack skill/knowledge) or calibration errors (possess competence but don't trust it), because these require fundamentally different interventions—training for the former, evidence collection for the latter.

1 lessonself-trustcalibrationcompetence
Rule

Calibrate commitment device strength to your failure…

Match the binding strength of commitment devices to the documented severity and frequency of past failures in that domain, using hard pre-commitments (physical impossibility or high cost) only for behaviors with long track records of in-the-moment failure.

1 lessoncommitment-devicescalibrationfailure-history
Rule

Target 40-60/100 subjective distress in inoculation…

When designing inoculation rehearsals, target a subjective distress level of 40-60 on a 0-100 scale—high enough to produce genuine arousal but low enough to practice through without overwhelming your capacity.

1 lessonpressure-inoculationcalibrationoptimal-challenge