Concepts
The irreducible epistemic atoms underlying the curriculum. 4,828 atoms across 8 types
Rule
Start project estimates with reference class forecasting…
Begin project estimates with reference class forecasting from 3-5 comparable past projects before considering project-specific details, as base rates predict outcomes more accurately than inside-view planning.
1 lessonreference-class-forecastingoutside-viewbase-rates
Rule
Forecast high-demand capacity from last year's same-period…
Use reference class forecasting from last year's actual capacity during the same seasonal period rather than estimating from your current state when planning high-demand periods.
1 lessonreference-class-forecastingseasonal-estimationoutside-view