Lessons tagged “forecasting”
4 published lessons with this tag.
perception
Track your predictions
Recording what you expect to happen and comparing to what actually happens is the only reliable method for calibrating judgment. Without a written record, hindsight bias rewrites your memory of what you believed, making genuine learning from experience impossible.
perception
Well-calibrated perception is a competitive advantage
The ability to see clearly — not optimistically, not pessimistically, but accurately — is rarer and more valuable than most technical skills. Calibrated perception compounds into better decisions, and better decisions compound into better outcomes at every timescale.
schema
Predictions test schemas
If your schema is correct it should make accurate predictions about what will happen next.
operations
Planning fallacy countermeasures
Add buffer to every estimate and use reference class forecasting.