6 published lessons with this tag.
In an information environment designed to overwhelm your cognition, the ability to detect signal is not an optimization — it is a survival skill that determines whether you act on reality or react to noise.
Your brain does not fail randomly. It fails in a specific, measurable, predictable direction: too much confidence. Across decades of research, in every population tested, the dominant calibration error is overconfidence — believing you know more than you do, that your estimates are more precise than they are, and that your performance exceeds what it actually achieves.
Recording what you expect to happen and comparing to what actually happens is the only reliable method for calibrating judgment. Without a written record, hindsight bias rewrites your memory of what you believed, making genuine learning from experience impossible.
Under stress your perceptual field contracts — you see less, process less, and mistake the narrow slice you do perceive for the whole picture. Recognizing this contraction is the first step to correcting it.
Basic physiological states measurably alter what you perceive and how you evaluate it.
Every effective delegation multiplies your capacity — the cumulative effect is exponential leverage.