2 published lessons with this tag.
Direct observation produces higher-signal data than filtered accounts. Every layer of transmission between you and reality introduces distortion — compression, editorialization, selective emphasis, cultural normalization. First-party data is not just more convenient. It is structurally different from second-hand reports, and treating them as equivalent is a signal-processing error.
You overestimate the likelihood of events you can easily recall examples of. The availability heuristic substitutes the question "how frequent is this?" with the question "how easily can I think of an example?" — and the substitution happens below conscious awareness, which means you feel like you are reasoning about probability when you are actually reasoning about the vividness of your memory.